Abstract
Distributed energy systems (DES), small scale energy systems established next to consumers, benefit us in various aspects. Especially, the resilience of DES has been paying attention due to the recent catastrophic disasters followed by serious supply disruption incidents. In this research, the authors build up a model to quantitatively analyze the resilience of DES and investigate the optimal system by solving single objective optimization problems, in which stochastic state transition between normal situation and supply disruption situations are incorporated. The results suggest that DES based on CGS (Co-Generation System) is highly efficient both in terms of economic efficiency and resilience against blackouts. Examining CGS based DES, batteries play an important role in adjusting power supply-demand. However, the optimal system is subject to change due to additional conditions taken into account. The risk of city gas supply disruption is related to how much redundancy is required for maintaining the system’s resilient operation without relying on CGS. In addition, the authors conduct analysis focusing on the predictability of disasters such as typhoons. The analysis reveals the impact of disasters’ predictability on the enhancement of storage equipment operation, which results in larger capacity of storage equipment finding its way into the optimal solution, compared to that of unpredictable cases.
