Abstract
In Japan, according to Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures, various countermeasures are implemented to reduce CO2 emissions in the residential sector by 66% by 2030, compared to 2013. To achieve the target, carbon management through the PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Action) cycle is useful. However, quantitative analysis of the plan’s progress【Check】and action based on the analysis【Action】still have not been carried out enough. In this paper, we evaluated the effects of the countermeasures and influence of weather condition via TREES model, which considers the heterogeneity of the energy use among households due to occupant behavior, appliance/equipment ownership, and weather condition. In addition, we proposed the next steps of the plan by analyzing the marginal abatement cost of each energy-saving measure. Simulation results suggest that 1) there has been not enough progress to achieve the 2030 target and 2) it is effective to promote measures with differentiating household categories, especially in households with lower marginal abatement cost to reduce CO2 emissions and household expenses.
