Abstract
Due to the massive introduction of renewable energy sources, various impacts on the power system are anticipated, including supply-demand imbalances, congestion in the transmission network, decreased inertia, difficulties in voltage management, and reduced short-circuit capacity. A comprehensive assessment of these effects will be necessary in future power systems. In this study, we have developed a method for creating the future grid model of power flow calculation and transient stability analysis considering the uncertainties of renewable energy output and electricity demand, by integrating the weather reanalysis data (ERA5), and the transmission system network model and generation dispatching calculation model of synchronous generators including unit commitment (UC) and the economic load dispatch (EDC).
The modeling of renewable energy output uncertainties is conducted by combining the assumable future renewable energy capacity aggregated at each substation and reanalysis data from ERA5 which is closest to the substation. As for the modeling of electricity demand, the climate-sensitivity model of electricity demand is established by the actual data of temperature and area demand. This paper also shows the typical results of power flow calculation and transient stability analysis of future grid model, which describe the difference of grid stability due to the condition of supply and demand of the grid.
