Abstract
A stable and sustainable supply of critical minerals becomes an important policy agenda from climate change and economic security perspectives. This study newly develops a global energy and mineral supply-demand model to assess the cost-effective energy technology choice considering resource constraints and material balances of critical minerals. We focus on lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which are the basic materials for lithium-ion batteries for mobility and stationary uses. The simulation results suggest the following two points. First, resource constraints of these three minerals affect the optimal penetration of BEV (battery electric vehicles) and stationary batteries. In particular, conventional NMC (nickel manganese cobalt oxide) batteries are constrained by the availability of nickel and cobalt resources. Nickel and cobalt-free batteries, such as LFP (lithium-iron phosphate) batteries, would be necessary to accelerate the deployment of BEV and stationary batteries. Second, from the viewpoints of lithium supply and demand, our results imply that lithium-ion batteries for vehicles would be the main demand, rather than stationary batteries. Lithium brine resources play a key role in meeting the demand in the long-term.
