抄録
Better understandings on factors determining electricity demands, and future perspectives on them are important in order to prepare stable and affordable electricity supply. However, there are several and large uncertainties in future electricity demands. The electricity demands for IT including data center are increasing. In addition, electrification is an important option for deep CO2 emissions reduction. Meanwhile, the relative prices of electricity across countries, and across energy sources will also have large impacts on the future demands. This study analyzes the future electricity demands in Japan up to 2050 through the consistent and quantitative analyses on electricity demands considering several factors by using energy economic models. According to the scenario analyses, the demands in 2050 will be 8-30 % larger than those in 2019. On the other hand, production reductions in energy intensive industries due to implicit or explicit carbon prices are also estimated, and will reduce the electricity demands by up to 4% points.
