2004 Volume 17 Issue 3 Pages 241-251
Ice breakup dates at Saroma-ko lagoon were estimated using water temperature trend by in-situ data and MODIS data. The estimation at Saroma-ko was the test study of estimating ice breakup dates of the lakes on the Eurasian continent by satellite data.
At first, water temperature trend was evaluated by a quadratic or a linear regression using in-situ water temperature data at Saroma-ko. The accuracy of dates when water temperature was 0.0°C estimated by regressions were about 1 or 2 days. Ice breakup dates at Saroma-ko were estimated using these regressions of water temperature. The results showed that the estimation errors were about 2 days after removal of the offset value. Secondly, ice breakup dates at Saroma-ko from 2000 to 2002 were estimated using water temperature trend by MODIS data. The results showed that the difference between estimation and observation was −14 days, and standard deviation was about 4 days. Lastly, the relationships between the frequency of data acquisition, the errors of water temperature, and the accuracy of estimated ice breakup dates were evaluated by the simulation. It revealed that the ice breakup dates were estimated about the 4 days accuracy at Saroma-ko.
