2019 Volume 49 Issue 1 Pages 61-82
This paper introduces the Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model for estimating the economic impacts of natural disaters. The SCGE model has a potential to describe the supply-chain damages between industrial sectors and regions as well as the change in final demands. However, few of the previous researches focus on the applicability of the SCGE model in the disaster impact analysis. The methodlogical framework is required to appropriately utilize the data obtained from rare damage records and reflect them into the basic settings of the SCGE model. For this purpose, it is necessary to estimate production capacity losses in the very detailed spatial scale using the economic census data, as an input of the model, and to investigate the closure rules and the values of parameters on the SCGE model. We have establiesd the SCGE model for the period of a few months after the Great East Japan Earthquake, which corresponds to the period that supply-chain damages were enourmous, but the model still needs to be refined, such as in the area of improving the values of substitution parameters between the goods and services from different regions. This paper briefly summarizes the outline of the SCGE model development for disaster impact analysis and reports the updates of the values of substituiton parameters which significantly improve the model performance.
