2002 年 2002 巻 238 号 p. 238_215-238_224
In the present study, a new prediction method of travel demand of cruise ships is proposed in which the characteristic of each demand for choosing a tour, the characteristics of tours, and factors of expense, time, seasickness, and popularity are taken into account. In the method, firstly, potential share of each tour, which is hot spring, cruising, theme park, and traveling abroad, is determined based on age and gender by using the characteristic of each demand for choosing a tour and the characteristics of tours. The characteristic of each demand for choosing a tour is analyzed by determining weights of nine elements, which are communication, relaxing, resting, nature, feeling of free, knowledge, curiosity, luxuriant and thrilling, based on taste and behavior of each demand by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model from survey data of general people who want to travel. The characteristics of the tours are analyzed by determining their weights for the nine elements by using AHP model from survey data of professional people who properly understand about all the tours. Then, using the predicted potential share for cruising, the number of demand of cruising is determined by using distributions of travel demand for traveling expenses and days, and factors of seasickness and popularity. Using the predicted number of demand, an economical analysis is carried out to determine the optimum fleets based on economic margin ratio and business impact. This method is applied to the Japanese cruise market and the results are discussed.
