Japan's Demographic Dilemma: Navigating the Postpandemic Population Decline

抄録

In recent years, Japan has faced a significant demographic crisis, which was further exacerbated by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. By 2022, the country experienced a 1.5% decrease in population, which is in contrast to other G7 nations, and had the highest rate of excess mortality among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This crisis is mainly attributed to aging population, with Japan's aging rate reaching 29.9%, the highest among its peer countries. The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has proposed policies aimed at addressing these challenges, focusing on increasing fertility rates. Despite these efforts, an evidence-based policymaking (EBPM) analysis reveals that the anticipated impact on fertility rates is marginal, with financial interventions estimated to yield only a slight population increase by 2060. Furthermore, the analysis highlighted the need for a more comprehensive approach, indicating that addressing societal issues such as gender norms and workplace culture might be crucial for a sustainable solution to Japan's demographic challenges. This emphasizes the need for Japan to consider broader societal changes alongside fiscal policies to effectively combat its demographic decline.