2007 年 85A 巻 p. 25-42
We compared forecasts of the Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Clim´ticos—CPTEC) General Circulation Model (GCM) and the mesoscale Eta Model with observations undertaken at the Rondonia Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) reference site, Brazil, for the dry period between 1 July and 1 September 2001. The Rondonia site is located in the Jaru Biological Reserve Area in the state of Rondonia within the Amazon region. The site is forested and is one of the Reference Sites of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in the Amazon Basin (LBA) Continental-Scale Experiment (CSE). Time series and mean diurnal cycles of precipitation, near-surface temperature, latent and sensible heat fluxes, surface incoming shortwave and net radiation fluxes are shown for 24-h and 48-h forecasts. In the global model, the predicted incoming shortwave radiation and net radiation are similar to observed values; however, this is accompanied by large overestimate of deep clouds and precipitation. Partition of the available energy results in an overestimate of the sensible heat fluxes and an underestimate of the latent heat fluxes. The latent heat fluxes are large shortly after rain, but decay quickly. No clear improvement is noted in the 48-h forecasts compared with the 24-h forecasts.
The Eta Model is a grid-point limited-area model. Its precipitation forecasts are similar to observations; however, the model overestimates the incoming shortwave radiation, resulting in excessive net radiation. The Eta sensible and latent heat fluxes are both overestimated, and 48-h forecasts produce small improvements over the 24-h forecasts. Near-surface temperatures are overestimated by both models. The global model requires a reduction in precipitation production, and both models require a reduction in incoming short-wave radiation at the surface.
