A 9-season TRMM Observation of the Austral Summer MJO and Low-frequency Equatorial Waves

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  A long-term observation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is analyzed to investigate the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Kelvin wave, and equatorial Rossby (ER) wave in austral summer seasons. TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) and Visible/Infrared Scanner (VIRS) measurements are jointly used to clarify convective progression associated with individual modes of the tropical oscillations. Variability in the dynamic and thermodynamic environment involving sea surface temperature (SST), column relative humidity (CRH), and moisture convergence is also examined. A sea surface warming is found to precede the peak MJO convection by ∼ 10 days, while a prior SST increase is not as evident for the Kelvin and ER waves. Moisture convergence and CRH exhibit a horseshoe-like pattern in the composite MJO map, constituted of a pair of off-equatorial maxima and a weak equatorial peak. The Kelvin wave has a moist anomaly on the equator leading the convective peak as theoretically expected, while the moist anomaly also extends poleward without being accompanied by moisture convergence. Moisture convergence leads CRH by a day or two for the Kelvin and ER waves. Moisture convergence is, in contrast, virtually concurrent with CRH for the MJO. The correlation between CRH and deep stratiform coverage is diverse among the three modes of the tropical oscillations. Shallow cumulus and cumulus congestus lead the MJO convective peak by ∼ 1 day, followed by lingering non-precipitating high clouds. ER wave convection is led by moisture convergence but lagged by CRH. The convective progression appears not to proceed in a monotonic way for the ER wave.
  A possible mechanism to explain MJO propagation is discussed as suggested by a synthesis of the present findings. The Kelvin wave guides the eastward migration of MJO convection onset over the Indian Ocean. The role of the Kelvin wave in MJO propagation diminishes as the MJO enters the west Pacific with the convective area shifting away from the equator. Instead, the Kelvin wave convective heating induces poleward moisture transport and moistens the off-equatorial mid troposphere. The resultant moist anomaly is hypothesized to help trigger the MJO convective burst upon the arrival of ER wave disturbances. Such cooperative processes involving the Kelvin and ER waves could act as a driving engine of some, if not all, MJO episodes.