The relationships between the occurrence of intense rainfall and the convergence of surface winds and water vapor concentration for typical heavy-rainfall cases were examined using data from July to August in 2011–2013 obtained from high-density meteorological observations in Tokyo, Japan. Additionally, the temporal variations in wind convergence and water vapor between days with and without heavy rainfall events were compared. Corresponding to the heavy-rainfall area, the convergence of surface winds tended to increase for several tens of minutes prior to the heavy rainfall. The peak of convergence was observed 10–30 min before the heavy rainfall occurrence, and convergence continued to increase for approximately 30 min until the convergence peak time. Around the heavy-rainfall area, the increase in the water vapor concentration index coincided with the increase in convergence. From these results, by monitoring the temporal variations and distributions of these parameters using a high-density observation network, it should be possible to predict the occurrence of heavy rainfall rapidly and accurately.
2017 by Meteorological Society of Japan