Forecasting Formula of Precipitation and the Problem of Conveyance of Water Vapour

抄録

The numerical prediction scheme of precipitation is discussed in detail. First, the forecasting formula of precipitation for a small time interval is shown in comparison with Smagorinsky and Collin's formula. Second, an applied example of this method is displayed with the explanation of technique. Third, the scheme of extension of forecast period with respect to rainfall forecast is described. Fourth, the water vapour prediction is investigated, which is important for the forecast of movement of rainy region. Fifth, in connection with the above problem, the adverting wind of water vapour is tesified, especially on 1000 mb level. In this test, the surface wind is calculated considering the non-geostrophic wind component proposed by Hinkelmann. Comparison of the calculated wind with the observed leads us to the conclusion that the wind direction agrees considerably well, though the speed of the calculated wind is exceedingly larger than that of the observed.