気象集誌. 第2輯
Online ISSN : 2186-9057
Print ISSN : 0026-1165
ISSN-L : 0026-1165
On the Effect of the Initial Conditions for 1-month Prediction
Akimasa SumiKyuichiro Tamiya
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1986 年 64A 巻 p. 817-825

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 The possibility whether the difference of the stationary response due to the different zonal state at the initial time exists in the long-time integration has been investigated in this study. Two cases of 1984 and 1985 winters are selected, because in 1985, a strong sudden warming occurred and not in 1984. Three 60 day time integrations for each year have been conducted, and their last 30 days time average were compared each other.
 The behavior of the difference has been investigated using EOF analysis. Most of the eigenvectors suggest that- the model tends to converge into the same final state (i. e., so-called model climate) influenced by the boundary conditions. However, a mode which reflects the difference due to the difference of the initial states is found, although its amplitude is not so large. The similarity between this and the first eigen mode obtained by the EOF analysis of observed fields suggests the possibility described above.
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© Meteorological Society of Japan
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