Abstract
In this study, we calculated the probability of planned suspension for Toyohashi Railroad by
analyzing past operational disruptions on the Atsumi Line and streetcars, coupled with typhoon
data. Results were used to develop a formula for the probability of planned service suspensions
24 hours in advance when a typhoon struck. Regression analysis showed a 61.3% accuracy for
rainfall warning criteria and 78.5% for wind speed. Suspension criteria accuracy was 58.2% for
rainfall and 75.8% for wind speed. However, rainfall exhibited significant variability, suggesting
the insufficiency of the two parameters in capturing the phenomenon. Future improvements may
involve adding new parameters, such as storm radius, for a more accurate estimation equation.
