Development of an Observation System for Avalanche Danger by using Fuzzy Reasoning

Abstract

Objective of this study is to prevent a disaster of the snow avalanche which has an increasing tendency every year in the certain skiing ground periphery. The time and a place of snow avalanche occurrence need to be estimated, to enforce refuge advice to a skier. An observation system was developed by utilizing fuzzy reasoning that a weather condition and the lay of the land condition are used in this study. Furthermore, the destination of snow avalanche was predicted for refuge advice. Analysis of snow avalanche motion on 3 dimensional lay of the lands was proposed by using Perla's model and was incorporated into the observation system. The possibility of the estimation to the risk of snow avalanche was able to be shown.