Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan
Online ISSN : 2185-0593
Print ISSN : 0916-0647
ISSN-L : 0916-0647
A Fire-Spreading Model with Random Points Associated with Random Break-Out Time
A Stochastic Approach Based on the Spatial Poisson Distribution
Osamu Kurita
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2007 Volume 42.3 Pages 499-504

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Abstract
As it is well known, post-earthquake fires cause significant harm to urban area and human populations. In this paper, a fire-spreading model in urban area with random points associated with random break-out time is constructed. The main objective of the study is to calculate a burn down rate of urban area after big earthquake. Fire-spreading areas are assumed to be circular disks or egg shaped disks. The latter is to model spreading speed depending on wind. In summary, the burn down rate is expressed as an exponential function of the average area of existing fires.
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© 2007 The City Planning Institute of Japan
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