Relationship between time series variations of residential burglary rates and the social and physical environments of local districts in Tokyo's 23 wards

An analysis using latent growth curve modeling

Abstract

The objective of this study is to identify the relationship between time series variations of residential burglary rates and the social and physical environments of local districts in Tokyo's 23 wards using latent growth curve modeling. We collected and analyzed official statistics from the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department's crime record data and derived the following results: (1) the latent growth curve model, which explains time series variations of residential burglary rates in districts in Tokyo's 23 wards, is described as a linear function; (2) the parameters that define the latent growth curve model vary significantly among districts statistically; and (3) the variables associated with criminological theories are significant predictors of the shape of the latent growth curve.