Abstract
The "cohort component method" used by municipalities for population prediction indicates "destiny as a prescribed route." In planning, policy and efforts are necessary to change this destiny in a better direction. To ascertain effectiveness, merely observing an actual population increase or decrease is insufficient. It is necessary to ascertain how much this destiny has changed. This study assessed this difference by extracting differences between the estimated population and the actual population as this destiny change and by statistically inferring the reasons. Analyses of municipalities nationwide show that infrastructure development and the impact of large disasters are effective. Moreover, positive effects have been obtained by local governments that initiated local community efforts earlier.
