Can living environment index forecast latest population change with the spatial resolution of local district level

Map visualization and cross table of living environment index and population change pattern

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate whether "living environment index" is useful to forecast population increase within the spatial resolution of local district level. The living environment index is derived from the result of the National Census in 2000, 2005, and 2010 and other spatial data sets. We discuss the relationship between the index and the population change between 2010 and 2015 from the map visualization and the cross tables. The population change of approximately 50 to 60 % of the local districts in the target area is forecasted successfully by the index. From the cross tables and the comparison of the mean value of the indices, we also discuss how we can improve the accuracy of the index by changing the calculation method of the index or by installing new living environment indices to the calculation.