The Study of construction and verification about Refuge Simulation after Catastrophic Disaster

Case Study for Quantitative Examination about Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake

Abstract

After Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake, it is expected that serious housing shortage will occur and many victims will move to private rental housing-turned-temporary housing in all over Japan. In this study, to examine those effects, we construct a refuge simulation and estimate the number of refuge households. This simulation uses the three kind of parameters, the number of damaged houses, vacant houses and victim's demand. The number of victims and housings can be calculated from the government statistics. The victim's demand was calculated from the result of questionnaire survey, based on multinomial logit model.