A Diffusion Model of ETC In-Vehicle Transmitters Incorporating the Interdependence among Road Users

Abstract

It is considered that ETC (Electronic Toll Collection) systems include noticeably interdependent relations among individuals' purchasing behavior of in-vehicle transmitter and its diffusion rate. This study aims to develop a diffusion-forecasting model of ETC in-vehicle transmitters by considering the interdependence among individuals' purchasing behavior and an aggregate market share. The model represents the deadlocked states of diffusion as well as the dynamic process of diffusion. The behavioral model is econometrically specified by using the data from stated choice experiments of transmitter purchasing decisions. Finally, the diffusion processes of transmitters are simulated in order to evaluate the effects of implementing various promotion policies of ETC in-vehicle transmitters.