THE OPTIMAL IMPLEMENTATION POLICY FOR INSPECTING PAVEMENT WITH DETERIORATION UNCERTAINTY

抄録

 This study proposes a methodology to find the optimal inspection policy for road pavement with uncertain deterioration processes. Since the deterioration progresses are characterized by a lot of uncertainty, the pavement conditions cannot be deterministically evaluated unless the inspection or repair activities are carried out. The road administrators have to decide whether repair should be implemented based upon the results of inspection. In this paper, the value of the inspection is evaluated by using the real option theory, and the optimal inspection and repair model is formulated to investigate the optimal inspection frequencies and repair policy, which may minimize the expected life cycle costs. Finally, the validity of the methodology presented in the paper is investigated by a case study dealing with the expressway in the real world.