SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR EVACUATION STRATEGIES FOR RESIDENTS IN BIG CITIES DURING LARGE-SCALE FLOODING

抄録

 In major cities, large populations can hinder evacuation efforts in the event of a large-scale flooding. Therefore, for investigating evacuation strategies during large-scale flooding in such cities, population size and its impact must be considered. This study aims to examine the evacuation problems that arise when big cities are subjected to large-scale flood damage. In addition, it attempts to examine strategies that can overcome the evacuation problems. In this study, we developed a scenario simulator to elaborately simulate the flooding, evacuation of residents, and status of damage due to water exposure in the Edogawa Ward, which has a population of approximately 650,000. In addition, using a simulation that reflected the intended evacuation behaviors of the residents for a scenario in which the banks of the Arakawa River overflowed, we were able to identify the inherent evacuation problems of the city, including the damage caused by the presence of a large number of evacuees. Furthermore, we analyzed scenarios including measures to reduce the extent of damage. From this information, it became clear that countermeasures such as spatial and temporal dispersion of evacuees and a reduction in evacuation demand are necessary.