抄録
The effect of rainfall on crustal strain at the Mikawa Crustal Movement Observatory, central Japan, was studied in detail with a data set from January 1974 through December 1984. Changes in crustal strain caused by rainfall were successfully simulated by a tank model, in which the crustal strain is given as a nonlinear function of precipitation and time. The simulation error was usually less than 10%, but occasionally it became larger. There were anomalies of two kinds: 1) a change in spatial distribution of strains in the observation tunnel; and 2) an increase in simulation error for the rainfall effect. These anomalous responses seem to be related to the occurrence of nearby earthquakes within a particular area around the observatory. The logarithmic duration time of anomaly was roughly proportional to the earthquake magnitude. Data from the past eleven years indicate that about 50% of M ≥ 3.5 earthquakes in the area were preceded by anomalous strain responses if they occurred after rain. The change in strain response to rainfall at this observatory could be a precursor of a nearby earthquake.
