Trends and Correlates of Fertility Declines in the NIES

Abstract

Trends and correlates of dramatic fertility declines in the NIES from the 1960s to the 1980s are examined in this paper. Specifically, we first look at changes in the fertility effets of such demographic factors as age structure of fertility, age pattern of marriage, and marital fertility. Next, as major proximate determinants of fertility, we examine changes in contraception and induced abortion. We then examine the fertility effects of changes in infant mortality and family planning programs. Finally, by examining changes in such socioeconomic factors as educational attainment and female labor force participation as well as attitudinal changes toward marriage and the family, we seek to infer their effects on fertility declines in the NIES. Rapid and steady declines in fertility in the NIES are due to postponement of marriage and deliberate control of marital fertility among women in their twenties and thirties. The effect of the latter is found to be especially strong, owing to the rapid spread of modern contraceptive methods with readily available induced abortion as a back-up, as well as to the dissemination of the concept of fertility control. These are thought to be facilitated, in turn, by the spread of universal primary education and significant declines in infant mortality prior to and during the early period of fertility transition. Traditional cultural values based on Confucianism, Buddhism, and Taoism also are not detrimental, but rather adaptive, to legitimatization of the concept and practice of family planning in the NIES societies. Once fertility declines started, they are thought to have facilitated further increases in educational levels (spread of secondary education) and labor force participation among young women, thus causing even more effective fertility control, delay of marriage, and then fertility declines to below-replacement levels.