Progression to Second and Third Births in Rural Jilin, China : Trends and Covariates

Abstract

Using data from the 1985 Survey on Rural Fertility and Living Standards, this study examines the patterns and covariates of progression to second and third births in rural areas of Jilin Province, China. The life-table analysis of trends and patterns of birth progressions shows whereas a large majority of women who had a first birth in 1971-79 went on to have a second birth, only a small proportion of women who had a first child in 1980-85 did so, indicating a strong effect of the one-child policy. Concerning progression to a third birth, similar trends and patterns are seen although the overall level of progression to a third birth was much lower than that of progression to a second birth. The hazard model analysis of covariates of birth progressions indicates that having a son and mortality of previous child(ren) are both associated positively with progression to second and third births throughout 1971-85. Agricultural occupation is found to encourage women to go on to have a second birth, and women's education is found to be negatively related to progression to a third birth. The effects of birth year is curvilinear : the probability of progression to second and third births increased initially and then declined later in 1971-79 and also in 1980-85.