Abstract
In recent years, Butz and Ward have demonstrated, by using a model derived from the 'new home economics', that both men's and women's current wages operate independently in explaining fertility movements in the United States. Their empirical results indicate that the U. S. baby boom of the 1950s can be explained as a response to rising male income, whereas the baby bust of the 1960s was due primarily to increases in female wages. Subsequently, the Butz-Ward version of the new home economics model of fertility has been applied to other industrialized countries. Despite the increasing number of empirical studies based on the Butz-Ward model, a few crucial flaws have been pointed out recently. In the present study, therefore, we (i) explore alternatives to the Butz-Ward model designed to overcome its theoretical and technical weaknesses, and (ii) test the applicability of each alternative to the context of contemporary Japan. To achieve these objectives, we first examine the relevance of the Butz-Ward model to Japan, using annual time-series data over the period 1963-1984. The regression results show that their model fits the Japanese data very well. Then, we discuss some of the major difficulties of the Butz-Ward model, by heavily drawing upon two recent studies. Taking the weaknesses of their model into consideration, we have proposed five alternative specifications in hopes of improving the Butz-Ward model. Although each of them reflects the spirit of the Butz-Ward model to a different degree, all of them have produced results consistent with the hypotheses, and can predict the recent trend of Japanese fertility very efficiently.
