Educational Assortative Mating in Japan: Evidence from the 1980–2010 Census

Abstract

The existing results for Japan on the trends in educational assortative mating are mixed largely due to data constraints. This study describes the trends in educational assortative mating in Japan using decennial population censuses conducted in 1980–2010 and discusses their social and demographic implications. Our simple log-linear model, which controls for changes in the educational composition of married couples, shows that the strength of the association for educational homogamy remained constant between 1980 and 2000, and dropped significantly in 2010. From 1980 to 2010, the strengths of the associations for educational homogamy and female educational hypergamy decreased, while, contrary to previous findings, both the share and the likelihood of female educational hypogamy increased. Our study also provides clear findings on the trends in educational assortative mating by education level and points to the emergence of new marriage behaviors, which are consistent with the observed shifts in educational pairing in Japan and across the globe. The likely explanation provided for the observed shift in the patterns of educational assortative mating is a combination of labor market bifurcations and concurrent shift in gender role expectations. We also point to that increasing economic uncertainty among male university graduates may blur economic boundaries between university graduates and other less-educated counterparts, accounting for some of the observed increase in educational hypogamy among highly educated women in Japan.