Effect of the ideal number of children on the timing of first marriage of Japanese individuals

Abstract

Typical life-course events of Japanese individuals occur in the order of singlehood, marriage, and childbirth. The number of children a person desires has been examined in studies on fertility, but its effect on the transition from being single to being married has not yet been clarified. The purpose of this study was to investigate how the ideal number of children that never married individuals prefer affects the timing of their first marriage. It used data from Wave 1-11 of the Japanese Life Course Panel Survey, with a sample size of 1,725 (8,274 person-years). Discrete-time logistic regression analysis was conducted using a sample of never married individuals aged 20-34 years at Wave 1, with the event of first marriage as the dependent variable and the ideal number of children as the explanatory variable. Findings indicated that the hazard ratio for first marriage was generally higher for men with a higher ideal number of children. Meanwhile, the hazard ratio for women with one or more ideal number of children was higher than for those with zero ideal number of children. The number of children that single individuals desire is a key factor influencing their subsequent life course. Results of this study revealed the following three points. First, the number of children desired by never married individuals has been declining in recent years, which seems to have contributed to an increase in the number of unmarried persons. Second, this research provides a different interpretation of the results of previous studies decomposing changes in the total fertility rate into (1) changes in marriage behavior and (2) changes in couples' fertility behavior (number of children), as if they were independent events. Third, to promote marriage as a measure against declining fertility rates, it is essential to not only support marriage but also improve child-rearing support so that young people are keen to have children.