Abstract
The introduction of a strategic environmental assessment requires prediction of the environmental impact atan early stage and for multiple plans. In an environmental impact assessment(EIA) at the program phase, it is important that the prediction be easily made even if it is not very accurate. This paper presents examples of a road project and a power plant project and proposes a simplified method for predicting air pollution. The proposed method calculates the air concentration of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter from emission quantities without yearly atmospheric dispersion simulations. The relationship between the air concentrations and emission quantities is obtained by analyzing the data presented in existing environmental impact statements. This method is advantageous as full-year meteorological observation is not required. The difference in prediction results between the proposed and the current methods was approximately two-fold and depended on the influence of meteorological and other conditions. The proposed method is applicable to screening and evaluation of alternative plans in the EIA and is also useful to the EIA for urgent disaster recovery.
