ARX モデルの次数探索決定方法の検討

抄録

An Auto-Regressive eXogenous input (ARX) model has been widely used in engineering fields to model dynamic response of a system to exogenous factors. A difficulty in this modeling is the determination of an appropriate model order for given data. In this paper, we develop a new and practical approach to determine the appropriate order. Moreover, we apply the developed technique to a real marketing data, and analyse dynamic response character of sales revenue to advertisement and sales promotion. In marketing study, static response of sales to some exogenous factors such as advertisement and sales promotion have been analyzed. However, if we can model daynamic response of sales to exogenous factor, more precise strategies of the sales can be designed in marketing.