人は、過去の株価時系列にどのような未来を投影するのか？

抄録

The purpose of this study is not predict a future stock price based on the past time series data, but is to clarify that how human predict a future stock price, when they see the past time series da Our experiments use computer program that shows time series data on discrete graph to subjects. It is considered that these time series data ( 1 ? 15 day or 1 ? 30 day ) are the past stock price. Subjects are required to predict future price of this stock at certain future time (31st, 35th , 45th , 55th day). The result of this experiment is that human adopt two ways of prediction. The first way is strong depend on nearest past data, man use this way to predict very near future. The second way is almost linear regression using all given data. However this is not just linear regression, but their prediction is approached to average of the past data.