A Marketing Simulation of a Retail Store with the Consumer Reactions to Stock-outs based on a POS Data

Abstract

In this study, we calculated the maximum gross pro t in a retail store in case of using quantitative order and investigated the performance of some demand estimation methods and order methods, by using agent-based simulations. We developed a store and a customer model, which re ects the consumer reactions to stock-outs such as brand switches, based on some Point-of-Sales data. As a result, we obtained an order quantity to maximize gross pro t of a store. Moreover, we found that the demand prediction and order methods which use only past sales data showed as same performance as quantitative order at best.