エボラ出血熱・新型感染症医療政策シミュレーションゲーム

抄録

This study proposes a simulation model of a new type of infectious disease basedon smallpox and Ebola hemorrhagic fever and a health policy Game. SIR(Susceptible, Infected,Recovered) model has been widely used to analyse infectious diseases such as in uenza, smallpox,bioterrorism and so on. On the other hand, Agent-based model or Individual-based model beginsto spread recent years. The model enables to represent behaviour of each person in the computer.It also reveals the spread of a infection by simulation of the contact process among people on themodel. The study designs a model based on Epstein's model in which several health policies aremade a decision such as vaccine stocks, antiviral medicine stocks, the number of medical staff toinfection control measures and so on. Furthermore, infectious simulation of Ebola hemorrhagicfever which has not any effective vaccine yet is also implemented in the model. As results ofexperiments using the model, it has been found that vaccination ability per day and the numberof medical staff are crucial factors to prevent the spread. In addition to that, a health policy gameagainst a new type of infectious disease is designed as a serious game.