Development of a model for generating the government's "Assessment of the current state of the economy" based on economic indicators and analysis of its tendencies

Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether it is possible to generate the government's "Assessment of the current state of the economy" by the Japanese government using several economic indicators that are believed to be consistent with the Japanese economic trend. In the Monthly Economic Report released by the Cabinet Office, the government publishes the government's "Assessment of the current state of the economy" along with expressions such as "recovering," "worsening," and "standstill", etc. In this paper, we developed a model to generate the government's "Assessment of the current state of the economy" and tested the accuracy of the predictions. In addition, we examined which economic indicators are likely to influence the government's "Assessment of the current state of the economy". It is expected that this analysis will be useful in predicting the government's policy decisions.