Estimation of Economic Ripple Effects of Closed Tourism Promotion Measures under the COVID-19 Epidemic

Abstract

To overcome the economic recession caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, the government launched the "Go To Travel" project in July 2020. However, the project was suspended in December 2020 due to the re-spread of the infection and has not resumed as of September 2022. On the other hand, apart from the national "Go To Travel" project, many local governments are implementing closed "prefectural discount" programs (regional tourism business supports) in their own limited areas to support the local tourism industry. This paper focuses on the economic impact of the prefectural discounts. Taking Hiroshima Prefecture as an example, an Internet survey was conducted to obtain accurate information regarding travel using the prefectural discounts. We then propose a stochastic estimation of the economic ripple effects using an input-output table and Monte Carlo simulation.