Unraveling "Situational Awareness"

Abstract

Since the term "generative AI" has been making headlines, debates about the timeline for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) have intensified. While there are many methods for estimating AGI development timelines, a blog post titled "Situational Awareness" by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI employee, has garnered attention for its notably optimistic prediction of AGI realization in 2027 or 2028. This lecture will unpack Aschenbrenner's post, discussing the logic behind AGI timeline estimation methods and their feasibility.