Examining the impact of the spread of next-generation automobiles on gasoline demand in Japan and the delivery system based on these changes using an agent-based model

Abstract

This research focuses on the decline in demand due to the spread of next-generation EV and hybrid vehicles, uses an agent-based model to predict gasoline demand, and predicts demand for a delivery model in which gasoline is delivered from a refinery or oil depot to a gas station by tank truck. We conducted a search for efficient delivery methods by reflecting the prediction results. The following results were obtained. Although oil depots have the function of reducing the number of tank trucks needed, using oil depots tends to increase delivery costs. If future gasoline demand decreases, the number of tanker trucks needed will also decrease. This is expected to reduce the need for the depot's ability to reduce the number of tanker trucks needed, making closure more economically advantageous.