Calculation model of CO₂ emission by using a population balance model

Abstract

The quantitative model for CO₂ emission from passenger cars in Japan is proposed. Cars are scrapped from society according to their lifetime distribution. How much the improvement of fuel economy in order to achieve the goal by COP3 is estimated. Consequently, it turns out that it must be improved by 2.42 times of the fuel economy in 1995 by the year of 2010. Substitution scenarios to small sized cars from large sized cars are considered and it effects largely on the reduction of CO₂ emission.