リスク・便益分析に基づく水路改良計画に関する方法論的研究
1986 年 1986 巻 365 号 p. 89-98
詳細
1986 年 1986 巻 365 号 p. 89-98
In this paper, a methodology of risk assessment for safety improvement planning of waterways is presented. Safety improvement planning system which involves some risks requires the risk analysis and the evaluation of the risk. This is the quite different point from usual physical planning. For taking this into consideration, the OSHICOP-model is introduced and the method to estimate the direct loss due to ship collision is developed in the present analysis. On the other hand, a simulation model to evaluate reduction of the delayed travel time by improvement of waterway in monetary term is built. Evaluation of the alternatives of the improvement plan is based on the risk-benefit analysis. The usefulness of the methodology and models are examined by numerical computations.
