短期間を対象とする確率地震荷重の推定法

抄録

This paper presents the use of the past seismic data to predict seismic motion intensity for short duration. The factors that affect this predicted value are studied, and application to a selected site of the straits of Akashi is presented. The study using a areal source model with assumed seismicity in each divided zone showed that earthquake of relatively small magnitude in the site plays an important role for estimating expected seismic load of the site. For structures under construction, an attempt to estimate the expected value of restoration cost for a three-span suspension bridge by probabilistic approach is also presented.