Abstract
This paper presents two aggregate models of destination choice which incorporate probabilistic formation of a choice set, in order to make possible us to forecast trip distribution efficiently. We assume that an alternative is dependent of the others and is selected into a choice set only if the utility exceeds a stochastic threshold. Therefore, we formulate alternative-selection probability model. The one is logit model in which the utility function is truncated by alternative-selection threshold. The other model is based upon the idea of importance sampling alternatives, but the sampling probability is replaced by alternative-selection probability. The result obtained by empirical study shows that both our models are statistically significant and can reproduce trip distribution observed very well.
