Abstract
A reliable estimation of surface fault displacement, including secondary fault displacement, is necessary for ensuring the safety of nuclear power plants. We developed a high performance computing finite element method (HPC-FEM) to evaluate the fault displacement. Probabilistic evaluations are required for estimaing the surface fault displacement because the solution of fault rupture process changes significantly depending on variability of input conditions. In this study, HPC-FEM is applied to the probabilistic evaluation with uncertainties of material properties. It is shown that HPC-FEM is able to compute the probabilistic distribution of the response in a practical time. The uncertainties of the material properties strongly in uence the critical base slip that makes the rupture reach the ground surface.
