Abstract
In this study, the authors develop a model of the mechanism in which there generate claims about road obstacle subjects, such as fallen objects. In detail, a model is proposed while assuming the generation process of a road obstacle subject and a claim as a Poisson process. Then, the authors formulate a hierarchical hidden Poisson model while defining the generation process of a road obstacle subject as the lower system and the generation process of a claim as the upper system, in order to take into account the hierarchical relation in which the increase of road obstacle subjects influences the frequency of claims. In addition, the authors propose a Bayesian estimation method for estimating a hierarchical hidden Poisson model by using the observation data of road obstacle subjects obtained through road patrols and the work of coping with claims. Lastly, the effectiveness of the methodology proposed in this study is verified through the case study applying to an actual national road.
