Abstract
In this article, we verify the validity of introducing the equilibrium concept in import and export, in order to evaluate properly the multiplier effect of fiscal stimulus properly. It is said that the multiplier effect estimated by the Japanese Cabinet Office's macroeconometric model is smaller than the private company's estimations. As the characteristic of Cabinet Office's model, it has the equation of equilibrium concept in import and export. When we introduce the equation in a model, the multiplier effect estimated by the model greatly decreasesd. We verifyied that the equation of equilibrium concept in import and export lets a model estimate the multipli-er effect to be low.
