Abstract
In this study, we focus on the causal relationship between failures occurring in concrete bridges of expressway facilities and propose a methodology to analyze the effect of delay of repair action to failure occurrences. Specifically, paying attention to water leakage failures and concrete exfoliation failures in bridges, the mechanism by which concrete exfoliation failure occurs due to water leakage failure is expressed by using Composite Weibull Hazard. Furthermore, we formulate the inflection of the occurrence probability of concrete exfoliation failure due to the deviation between water leakage failure occurrence timing and repair timing against it as a function of repair delay time and deterioration factors. For the estimation, we apply sampling by the MCMC (MH) method after performing the completion operation and estimate the parameters of deterioration factors and delay functions and posterior probabilities of failure occurrence. In addition, we make suggestions about the importance of quickness of water leakage repair through the empirical analysis for actual expressway facilities.
