ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS OF CUTOFF AND TIMING OF REOPENING OF ARTERIAL ROADS BETWEEN REGIONS CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTER ON REGIONAL ECONOMY

Abstract

 In Japan, cutoff of roads between regions by natural disaster have sometimes occurred. In this paper, we developed a regional econometric model which is capable of evaluating time-series impacts of cutoff and restoration of arterial roads between regions on regional economy. The model considers the decrease in export as exogenous variables based on the assumption that cutoff of roads between regions decreases export. It can analyze the impact of cutoff of roads on regional potential productivity by decreasing the average working hour index and the rate of capital utilization index at the same rate as maximum decrease rate of import of raw materials. We also constructed the quarterly based empirical model for Wakayama Prefecture and simulated the impact of cutoff and timing of reopening of roads which connect with other cities on the regional economy assuming that Gobo City is isolated by cutoff of roads. As a result, it is indicated that the impact of cutoff of roads continues for a long time after reopening, early reopening alleviates the decrease in gross regional product by cutoff of roads for a long time, etc.