SLIDING SCALE IMAPCT ANALYSIS OF HIGH FUEL PRICES BASED ON PANEL DATA −CONSIDERING DRIVERS' MOTIVATIONS−

Abstract

Fuel retail prices, which had been rising for about two years, hit a record high of 185.1 yen per liter in August 2008. The authors conducted panel surveys at two points covering the period of rising prices to elucidate actual conditions of drivers' driving restraint behaviors and changes in price elasticity attributable to rising prices; each driver's motivation was examined. Simultaneously, we investigated the reliability of self-predictions of the amount of reduction in driving attributable to rising prices. Results show the following: 1) restraint behaviors—including eco-driving—were diverse depending on each driver's motivation and changes in the rates of price increase; 2) very large values of elasticity were found in comparison to results reported for conventional studies; but 3) the actual amount of reduction in driving tended to fall below self-predictions.