APPLICABILITY OF BEHAVIORAL INTENTION METHOD TO DEMAND FORECASTING OF KUMAMOTO-DENTETSU RAILWAY LRT PLAN

Abstract

  Behavioral intention (BI) method is a new technology for demand forecasting. In this method, behavioral intention is directly measured from targeted people to imagine actual behavior in new traffic environment. BI method is based on the attitude theory, which is different from utility function models based on the reasoned choice theory in microeconomics. Therefore, all factors which affect traffic behavior do not need to be specified and converted into quantity to get included in function models. In this study, demand of Kumamoto-dentetsu railway LRT plan is forecasted by using BI method. Thus, LRT specific effects are considered in demand forecasting. Comparing the result with that of four-steps method, which is a traditional method for traffic forecasting, knowledge on application of BI method to new traffic policy can be obtained.